The Five Demands

Message of Belfast Telegraph poll: Northern Ireland needs a change in politics (Belfast Telegraph)

Week of results reveals cracks in the old moulds.

Our survey confirms that old moulds are starting to crack apart, but the political system lags behind the change.

Religion is still the prime indicator of voting intention.

The poll shows that the DUP still gets 70% of its support from Protestants and only 1.5% from Catholics, but a considerable swathe comes from people who designate as other religions (16.4%) or none (11.9%).

We haven’t given these figures before — they aren’t the same as the percentage of people in a certain group who voted for a party.

The percentages here represent the proportion of a party’s support.

In Sinn Fein’s case, it relies on Protestants for 4.4% of its support at the polls, not much, but significant in some Assembly constituencies.

The bulk, 55.8%, comes from Catholics, with 15% coming from others and nearly a quarter (24.8%) from people who gave their religion as none.

We will publish the figures for other parties online, but these examples are enough to demonstrate that, although religion is still a huge factor in electoral support, it is not the only factor.

The number of people who don’t choose one of the main Christian denominations is also rising, but other statistics show that regular church attendance is well below 50% and church marriages, or marriages of any kind, are in decline.

Sometimes it seems that gays and lesbians are most interested in getting married.

They aren’t allowed to do so here, but there is growing support for change, particularly amongst the young.

There is still a 53% majority against same sex marriage. That is close to the poll’s 3.6% margin of error and support is rising for change against the advice of most churches.

Things may yet swing back. Certainly, the mainstream churches recognise the problem and are trying to address it.

They are all looking for ways to become more relevant to young people and the unchurched.

Political parties also need to address the fall in support for their policies.

Our poll shows that nearly half of people don’t intend voting, and not everyone who intends to vote actually makes it on election day.

The fall in electoral participation shouldn’t come as a complete surprise. Voter numbers here have been in decline since 1983 —a Troubles year — when 73% voted in the General Election.

Part of the switch-off is down to disenchanted working class loyalists who feel that they have lost out in the peace process.

They need reassurance, but they aren’t alone.

Less than a third (30.8%) of non-voters put themselves down as Protestants and only 26.5% are in the lowest earning DE social category.

Significant chunks of the voting age population are turned off by an orange/green style of politics which many regard as a cyncial game that no longer addresses their main concerns.

More than a fifth (21.7%) of the highest earning AB social category don’t vote and many of these people told our pollsters that they are expecting economic decline.

Non-voters often tend to be more liberal, though not by a huge margin.

For instance, 56% of them, compared to 47% of all people who expressed an opinion, support same sex marriage.

Like the rest of the population they gave a shockingly low approval rating to the Assembly (60%).

How can the parties reconnect?

It could be argued that the DUP and Sinn Fein don’t need to.

They are so far ahead of the other parties that the main challenge is to keep their voters coming out, though the DUP in particular needs to appeal to the young to avoid medium term decline. It is the other parties who are missing a trick.

In a poll we carried out at the end of last year about half of respondents wanted British or Irish parties to contest elections here.

This shows an appetite for something different, something that would probably be based primarily around the economic and social issues.

The challenge for new and smaller parties is not so much to beat the big two at their own game as offer an alternative which can draw more people into the political discourse.

There is a yawning gap in the market to be filled.

How we built up an accurate picture of opinion: When, where and how our poll was carried out

Monday

Against the backdrop of riots, violence and unrest the exclusive Northern Ireland-wide poll by the Belfast Telegraph revealed some surprising results on parading.

Our question on the issue showed that only a quarter of people here support parades which defy official ruling or objections from local residents.

Around 31% said that parades should only take place in areas where there is local agreement, with more Catholics agreeing with this than Protestants.

Only 6% of the 1,222 people who voted said that the Parades Commission can be ignored, irrespective of the law.

Just 1% of Catholic voters agreed with this compared to 8% of the Protestant vote.

Monday’s results also revealed that the approval of the Northern Ireland Assembly’s performance has fallen to an all-time low of close to minus 60%.